🕘 Lesson at a Glance | Te Hōtaka
Lesson Overview | Tirohanga Whānui
Last lesson, ākonga starred the Antarctic change that worries them most as a kaitiaki. Today they find where those changes are already landing — in our own rohe. They interrogate NIWA's projections for Aotearoa, map the impacts region by region, analyse Cyclone Gabrielle as a real climate disaster, and audit source-based evidence about climate risk in Tuvalu and Kiribati.
Learning Intentions | Ngā Whāinga Ako
- Describe how a warming Antarctica is already affecting Aotearoa's and the Pacific's coastlines and communities.
- Interpret NIWA projection data and the Cyclone Gabrielle case study to identify who is most at risk, and why.
- Apply kaitiakitanga to weigh our responsibilities to communities facing climate impacts — here and across Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa.
⚡ Do Now
⏱ 5 minLast lesson you starred a change that worries you. Today: is it already happening here?
- Find your rohe (2 min): on the class map of Aotearoa, find where you live and mark it.
- Predict (3 min): in your book, write the ONE climate impact you think your area is most at risk from — flooding, drought, coastal erosion, or storms — and why. We'll test your prediction against the real data in Activity 2.
Activity 1 · Read the Projections — Ngā Matapae
⏱ 15 minWhat it is: Ākonga don't just read NIWA's projections for Aotearoa — they interrogate them and work out what each number means for their own rohe.
Ngā matapae · The projections — read each card with your pair:
🌡️ Warming
NIWA projects Aotearoa will be +0.7–1.5°C warmer by 2050 (above the 1995 baseline), and +1.5–3.0°C by 2100 on low emissions — up to +5.5°C if emissions stay high.
🌊 Sea level
NZ seas are projected to rise 0.1–0.3 m by 2050 and 0.3–1.0 m by 2100 — higher if the Antarctic ice sheets (Lesson 1) destabilise. Low-lying suburbs like South Dunedin and Petone are most exposed.
🌧️ Rainfall shifts
The pattern tilts: west coasts wetter (+5–15%), east coasts drier (−5–15%). Canterbury and Hawke's Bay face more drought; the West Coast more flooding.
🌀 Extreme events
Warmer oceans give storms more energy — tropical cyclones reach further south, and "1-in-100-year" floods are becoming far more frequent.
Run it — interrogate the data
- Rank (5 min): in pairs, order the four projections by how much they threaten your rohe. Be ready to justify your top one.
- Translate (4 min): pick one figure and rewrite it so a Year-5 student would understand it — keep the number, change the words.
- Check your Do Now (3 min): does the data back up the prediction you made at the start? Adjust it, and say what changed your mind.
Activity 2 · Map It — Ngā Pānga ā-Motu
⏱ 20 minWhat it is: Ākonga turn the projections into a picture of the whole motu — mapping which climate impacts hit which regions, and finding who is most exposed.
Run it — map the impacts
- Colour the legend (2 min): blue = sea-level / coastal flooding; red = extreme weather (cyclone, severe flood); orange = drought / less rainfall; purple = glacier & snowpack loss; green = ecosystem disruption.
- Mark the motu (13 min): in pairs, find and colour each place on the map — e.g. Hawke's Bay / Heretaunga (red — Cyclone Gabrielle), Tairāwhiti (red — landslides), Northland & Coromandel (blue — coastal erosion), Canterbury (orange + purple), Franz Josef / Fox glaciers (purple — over 3 km of retreat since 1990), South Dunedin & Petone (blue — low-lying), Hauraki Gulf / Tīkapa Moana (green — marine heatwaves).
- Read the map (5 min): which regions are hit by more than one impact? Is anywhere "safe"? Who lives in the most-exposed places — and was your Do Now rohe one of them?
Activity 3 · Cyclone Gabrielle — Āwhā i Tō Tātou Takiwā
⏱ 20 minWhat it is: A real climate disaster in our own backyard. Ākonga don't just read about Cyclone Gabrielle — they weigh the evidence: was this climate change, and who paid the price?
📅 What happened
February 2023 — one of the most destructive storms in NZ's recorded history. 11 people were killed, thousands were displaced, and a national state of emergency was declared. Treasury estimated NZ$9–14.5 billion of physical-asset damage from the combined Auckland Anniversary floods and Cyclone Gabrielle — not Gabrielle alone.
🔬 The science link
NIWA's attribution study found human-induced warming increased Gabrielle's total rainfall by about 10%. No single storm is simply "caused" by climate change; attribution science asks how warming changed its intensity or likelihood.
⚖️ Who bore the cost
Māori communities — especially on rural Māori land in Tairāwhiti and Hawke's Bay — were hit hardest. Not by chance: low-lying whenua, under-built stopbanks and roads, and isolation compounded the damage.
Run it — weigh the evidence
- Decide (8 min): in pairs, use the three cards to answer one question — "Was Cyclone Gabrielle climate change?" Write a claim, your best evidence, and the careful wording scientists actually use ("more intense and more likely", not "caused by").
- Dig in (7 min): why did some communities suffer more than others? List the structural reasons — this is climate justice, not just weather.
- Share (5 min): a few pairs share their claim. Where did the class land on the wording?
Activity 4 · Pacific Voices — Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa
⏱ 20 minWhat it is: Climate change is present-tense reality across Te Moana-nui-a-Kiwa. Ākonga examine source-based evidence without pretending to speak as Tuvaluan or i-Kiribati people, then separate what the evidence establishes from the voices still missing.
🇹🇻 Tuvalu
Average elevation about 2 m above the sea; ~11,000 people. In 2023 Tuvalu signed the Falepili Union with Australia. The treaty includes a special mobility pathway to Australia; it is not a Tuvalu–New Zealand agreement.
🇰🇮 Kiribati
33 atolls, average elevation under 2 m. King tides contaminate the freshwater wells; the government has bought land in Fiji as a possible relocation site; coral bleaching is destroying reef food systems.
Run it — audit the evidence
- Read (4 min): in pairs, read both evidence cards. Underline verifiable facts; circle any claim that would need a named Pacific source.
- Audit (10 min): answer the four source questions. For each response, label it evidence, inference, or voice still needed. Nobody performs a Pacific identity or invents a community member's feelings.
- Debrief (6 min): what responsibilities can Aotearoa reasonably infer from the evidence, and what must be learned by listening to Tuvaluan and i-Kiribati people themselves?
🪶 Cultural boundary: do not ask ākonga to impersonate Pacific people or manufacture grief, whakapapa, or consent. Use published Pacific voices when available. Any local community contribution should be invited and used on that community's terms.
Exit · Quick Check — He Aha i Mau i a Koe?
⏱ 5 minOn a slip or in their book, each ākonga finishes these three sentences before they leave:
- The region on the map I'd least want to live in, and the impact that made me choose it:
- "Was Cyclone Gabrielle climate change?" — my answer in one careful sentence:
- As a kaitiaki, one thing Aotearoa owes our Pacific neighbours:
🎯 Curriculum Links | Te Hononga ki te Marautanga
This lesson's focus: Ākonga analyse how climate change is already affecting Aotearoa and the Pacific — using NIWA projections, the Cyclone Gabrielle case study, and Pacific voices — and apply kaitiakitanga to weigh our responsibilities to affected communities.
Ecosystems — Core Connection (Phase 4 | Years 9–10)
"Analysing the effects of human activities (e.g. deforestation, pollution) on ecosystems and large Earth systems (e.g. climate, oceans) using scientific models and concepts"
📑 View the full verified Te Mātaiaho curriculum alignment for this unit → — Phase 4 · Years 9–10 (statements pulled verbatim from the live curriculum).
📦 Materials & Resources
📋 Handouts & Worksheets
- NZ Climate Projection Cards — used in Activity 1 (Read the Projections)
- NZ Climate Impact Map — used in Activity 2 (Map It)
- Pacific Climate Evidence Cards — used in Activity 4 (Pacific evidence audit)
🛠️ Equipment & Setup
- A3 outline map of Aotearoa (one per pair)
- Coloured pencils or markers (one colour per impact type)
- Student books
- Projector/screen + internet (for the Cyclone Gabrielle video, if used)
📊 Assessment Framework
This is a single lesson, so assessment here is formative — reading for learning as it happens. The unit's summative assessment sits at the end of the unit, not in this lesson.
What to look for, mapped to the learning intentions
- Impacts on Aotearoa & the Pacific (LI 1): in Map It, can ākonga place impacts on the right regions and spot who is most exposed? In Pacific Voices, do they grasp that this is present-tense for our neighbours?
- Interpreting data & the case study (LI 2): in Activity 1 can they rank the projections and translate a figure? In the Gabrielle task, do they use the careful attribution wording ("more intense and more likely") rather than "caused by"?
- Kaitiakitanga (LI 3): in the Pacific Voices debrief and the exit ticket, can they name a real responsibility Aotearoa holds toward affected communities — not just "we should care"?
🚀 Extension Activities
🏠Mahi Kāinga — Local Investigation
Self-directed, short. Interview a whānau member or kaumātua about an environmental change they've noticed in their lifetime — a river, a beach, a season that's shifted. Their kōrero becomes part of our class knowledge.
🗺️Map Your Own Place
Use NZ SeaRise or your council's coastal-hazard maps to find your own street's projected risk by 2100.
⚖️Pacific Climate Justice
Research the 2023 Australia–Tuvalu Falepili Union or another Pacific climate-mobility policy. What does the source establish, whose voice is present, and whose voice is missing?
🔗 Unit Progression & Next Steps
This is Lesson 2 of the 8-lesson Antarctica unit. Today ākonga brought Antarctica's changes home — to our coastlines, Cyclone Gabrielle, and our Pacific neighbours. Where it sits:
← Lesson 1: Antarctica Warming
The science of a warming Antarctica and its physical link to Aotearoa.
→ Lesson 3: Mātauranga Māori
How Māori have read environmental change for generations — the maramataka and ngā tohu o te taiao alongside Western science.
Into Lesson 3: ākonga carry one question — if the data shows what is changing, what knowledge systems help us read and respond to it? Today's kōrero sets up the mātauranga lens.
📋 Teacher Planning Snapshot
Ngā Paearu Angitū — Success Criteria
- ✅ I can name climate impacts on Aotearoa and the Pacific and say who is most at risk. (LI 1)
- ✅ I can read NIWA's projections and answer "Was Gabrielle climate change?" using careful wording. (LI 2)
- ✅ I can name a real responsibility Aotearoa holds toward communities facing climate impacts. (LI 3)
Differentiation for this lesson
- Mapping: pair confident and developing readers; give entry-level ākonga a region list with the impact pre-named, and a blank map for extension.
- Attribution wording / ELL: offer the frame "Climate change made Gabrielle more ___ and more ___" so ākonga practise the careful science wording.
- Climate kōrero: climate anxiety is real — frame the Pacific debrief as agency, not doom. The lesson deliberately ends on responsibility and action.
Broader differentiation and the unit-wide mātauranga framing live on the unit overview.