NZ Climate Projection Cards — Ngā Matapae
Lesson 2: Local Climate Impacts · Activity 1 · Years 9–10
Print one set per pair and cut along the dashed lines. Each card carries a real, sourced NIWA projection. Pairs read all four, then complete the tasks below.
🌡️ Warming
NIWA projects Aotearoa will be +0.7–1.5°C warmer by 2050 (above the 1995 baseline), and +1.5–3.0°C by 2100 on low emissions — up to +5.5°C if emissions stay high.
🌊 Sea level
NZ seas are projected to rise 0.1–0.3 m by 2050 and 0.3–1.0 m by 2100 — higher if the Antarctic ice sheets destabilise. Low-lying suburbs like South Dunedin and Petone are most exposed.
🌧️ Rainfall shifts
The pattern tilts: west coasts wetter (+5–15%), east coasts drier (−5–15%). Canterbury and Hawke's Bay face more drought; the West Coast more flooding.
🌀 Extreme events
Warmer oceans give storms more energy — tropical cyclones reach further south, and "1-in-100-year" floods are becoming far more frequent.
Mahi Takirua · Work With the Data
- Rank (5 min): order the four projections by how much they threaten your rohe. Be ready to justify your top one.
- Translate (4 min): pick one figure and rewrite it so a Year-5 student would understand it — keep the number, change the words.
- Check your Do Now (3 min): does the data back up the prediction you made at the start of the lesson? Adjust it, and say what changed your mind.
Ngā Puna · Sources (verified)
NIWA — Climate change projections for New Zealand (2050 & 2100 scenarios) · NZ SeaRise (Takiwā) coastal sea-level projections · Ministry for the Environment — Our atmosphere and climate reporting.