Population Trends Analysis
Population Trends Analysis · Years 10–13
Ngā Whāinga Akoranga · Learning Intentions
- Investigate a significant question using evidence from multiple sources
- Analyse and evaluate information to form and support a reasoned position
- Connect learning to real-world contexts, including Aotearoa New Zealand settings
- Communicate understanding clearly and accurately for a specific audience
Paearu Angitu · Success Criteria
- I use at least two sources and can evaluate their credibility
- My position is clearly stated and supported by specific evidence
- I can connect my learning to at least one real-world Aotearoa context
- My communication is clear, organised, and appropriate for the audience
Population Trends Analysis
📈 The most remarkable demographic recovery in NZ historyThe demographic history of Māori is extraordinary: from an estimated 100,000–150,000 people in 1769, to near-extinction warnings in the 1890s (42,000 people), to today's 875,000 identifying as Māori. Understanding this story requires mastery of percentage change, rates of growth, exponential modelling, and demographic equity analysis.
Part 1 — Reading the Census Data
| Year | Māori Population | NZ Total | Māori % | % Change from prev. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1858 | 56,049 | 115,462 | — | |
| 1874 | 47,330 | 344,984 | ||
| 1896 | 42,113 | 743,214 | ||
| 1921 | 56,987 | 1,271,664 | ||
| 1945 | 98,744 | 1,702,298 | ||
| 1966 | 201,159 | 2,676,919 | ||
| 1981 | 279,252 | 3,175,737 | ||
| 1996 | 523,374 | 3,681,546 | ||
| 2006 | 565,329 | 4,143,279 | ||
| 2018 | 775,836 | 4,699,755 | ||
| 2023 | 875,000 | 5,123,000 |
- Complete the "Māori %" and "% Change" columns. % change = (new − old) ÷ old × 100
- Plot a dual-axis line graph (Māori left axis; NZ total right axis). Annotate the 1896 nadir.
- Name three causes of Māori population decline between 1858–1896 (use historical knowledge).
- Calculate the average annual growth rate for the "recovery boom" period 1945–1981.
r = (P_final/P_initial)^(1/t) − 1
Part 2 — Exponential Models & Projections
- Using P₀ = 875,000 (2023) and r = 2.1% per year, project the population for 2028, 2038, 2048.
- Stats NZ projects 1.18 million Māori by 2038. What implied annual growth rate does this require? Solve:
1,180,000 = 875,000 × (1 + r)¹⁵
- Use the Rule of 70 to find the doubling time at 2.1% growth. Then calculate the exact doubling time from 1896 (42,113) to when the population first doubled — compare the two results.
- List 3 real factors that could change the growth rate — which increase it? Which decrease it?
Part 3 — Demographic Equity: Beyond the Numbers
| Indicator | Māori | NZ European | Absolute gap | % gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median age | 25.8 yr | 40.4 yr | ||
| Life expectancy (male) | 73.4 yr | 81.2 yr | ||
| Life expectancy (female) | 77.1 yr | 85.0 yr | ||
| University completion | 13% | 28% | ||
| Home ownership | 28% | 54% | ||
| Median household income | $63,500 | $96,400 | ||
| Youth unemployment (15–24) | 22% | 9% |
- Complete the gap columns. Which indicator has the largest relative gap? Smallest?
- Māori median age is 25.8 vs 40.4 for NZ Europeans. Discuss 4 implications for: education, housing, workforce, and future Māori economic growth.
- If Māori life expectancy improves at 0.25 yr/yr and NZ European at 0.15 yr/yr, when does the gap close?
Māori LE(t) = 73.4 + 0.25t | NZ Eur LE(t) = 81.2 + 0.15t | Set equal and solve for t
- Critical thinking (200 words): Are these gaps caused by "cultural factors" or structural inequity? Use evidence from this handout and NZ history.
📊 Whakamutunga — Ka mua, ka muri
"Walking backwards into the future" — the Māori concept of progression demands understanding the past to navigate what lies ahead. The recovery from 42,000 to 875,000 is the mathematical record of survival. Understanding it gives us tools to imagine different futures.
Te wero: Using Stats NZ population projection tools, find the projected Māori population for your region by 2043. What does this mean for schools, housing, and services in your community?
🌿 Ngā Rauemi Hono — Related Resources
Hononga Marautanga · Curriculum Alignment
Level 3–4: Investigate social, cultural, environmental, and economic questions; gather and evaluate evidence from diverse sources; communicate findings and reasoning clearly for different audiences and purposes.
Level 3–4: Read, interpret, and evaluate information texts; write clearly and purposefully for specific audiences; apply critical thinking skills to evaluate sources and construct well-reasoned responses.
Tuhia ōu whakaaro · Write Your Thoughts
Reflect on your learning. What was the most important idea? What question do you still have?
Aronga Mātauranga Māori
This resource sits within a kaupapa that recognises mātauranga Māori as a living knowledge system with its own frameworks, values, and ways of understanding the world. The New Zealand Curriculum calls for learning that reflects the bicultural partnership of Te Tiriti o Waitangi, which means every subject area has an obligation to engage authentically with Māori perspectives — not as cultural decoration but as substantive contributions to how we understand our topics. The concepts of manaakitanga (care for others), kaitiakitanga (guardianship), whanaungatanga (relationship and belonging), and tino rangatiratanga (self-determination) provide a values framework applicable across all learning areas, and all are relevant to the work in this handout.
Ngā Rauemi Tautoko · Resources already provided
This handout is designed to be used alongside other resources in the same unit. Related materials are linked in the unit planner. All content is provided — no additional preparation is required to use this handout in your classroom.
📋 Teacher Planning Snapshot
Materials: This resource can be printed or used digitally. No additional materials required unless specified above.
Differentiation: Provide sentence starters or word banks for students needing scaffold support. Extend capable learners by asking them to research a real NZ example connected to this theme. Support ELL students with vocabulary pre-teaching. Offer entry-level and extension tasks to address a range of readiness levels.
Prior knowledge: Best used after the relevant lesson. Students with prior knowledge of systems and governance will access this more readily; no specialist prior knowledge is required for entry-level engagement.
Curriculum alignment
- Social Studies — Understanding: Students understand how systems thinking helps us analyse complex social, economic, and environmental challenges and identify leverage points for change.