Probability & Mātauranga Māori
Patterns, Chance & Decision-Making Through Dual Knowledge Systems
Understanding probability through both modern mathematical concepts and traditional Māori approaches to pattern recognition, prediction, and collective decision-making.
Two Ways of Understanding Chance & Patterns
Mathematics uses numbers to understand probability and predict outcomes. Mātauranga Māori uses careful observation of natural patterns, environmental signs, and collective wisdom to understand likelihood and make decisions. Both approaches help us navigate uncertainty and make better choices about the future.
"He mata whaiaro"
An inquiring mind sees patterns in all things
Ngā Tahua Rangahau - Two Approaches to Probability
Mātauranga Māori - Pattern Recognition
- Environmental Signs: Reading natural indicators to predict weather, seasons, and resource availability
- Cyclical Patterns: Understanding long-term cycles in nature, stars, and tides
- Collective Wisdom: Using group knowledge and experience to assess likelihood
- Holistic Assessment: Considering multiple factors and their relationships
Mathematical Probability
- Numerical Calculation: Using formulas to calculate exact probabilities
- Data Analysis: Using past data to predict future outcomes
- Statistical Models: Creating mathematical models of uncertainty
- Precise Measurement: Quantifying exact chances and risk levels
Integration Strength
Traditional pattern recognition provides context and meaning; mathematical probability provides precision. Together, they create powerful decision-making tools.
Matakite - Traditional Prediction & Pattern Recognition
Reading Environmental Probability
Traditional Māori knowledge includes sophisticated methods for predicting outcomes based on environmental patterns. These aren't superstitions - they're based on centuries of careful observation.
Weather Prediction Examples
- Cloud Formations: Specific cloud patterns indicating high probability of rain
- Wind Patterns: Direction and intensity predicting weather changes
- Animal Behavior: Bird flight patterns indicating storm likelihood
- Ocean Signs: Wave patterns and water color predicting weather
Resource Availability Prediction
- Seasonal Timing: When plants and animals are most likely to be available
- Environmental Health: Indicators suggesting high probability of good harvests
- Migration Patterns: Predicting when fish and birds will be present
- Ecosystem Relationships: How one species' behavior predicts others
Mathematical Probability Concepts
The Probability Scale & Formula
Probability Scale
Impossible
0
Unlikely
Even Chance
0.5 or 1/2
Likely
Certain
1
Probability Formula
P(event) = Number of favorable outcomes ÷ Total number of possible outcomes
Example: Probability of rolling a 4 on a six-sided die = 1 ÷ 6 = 1/6 ≈ 0.167
Whakatōpū - Integrated Practice Activities
Activity 1: Environmental Pattern Probability
Scenario: You are planning a outdoor school camp. Use both traditional knowledge and mathematical probability to assess weather likelihood.
Traditional Indicators
Observe and describe:
- □ Cloud formations and movements
- □ Wind direction and strength
- □ Bird behavior patterns
- □ Ocean/water conditions
Prediction: Based on these signs, how likely is good weather?
Mathematical Analysis
Weather data shows:
- In the last 20 days: 14 fine days, 6 rainy days
- Calculate: P(fine weather) = ___ ÷ ___ = ___
- Express as percentage: ___ %
- Mark on probability scale above
Question: Do both methods give similar predictions?
Activity 2: Sustainable Resource Decisions
Scenario: A community needs to decide how much fish to harvest sustainably. Use both knowledge systems to make the decision.
Traditional Knowledge Assessment
Consider these traditional indicators:
- Fish size and health appearing smaller than usual
- Fish behavior seems more cautious
- Seabirds are fishing closer to shore (less fish offshore)
- Traditional harvest season timing
Assessment: What do these signs suggest about fish population health? Should harvest be: High / Moderate / Low / Rāhui (no harvest)?
Mathematical Probability Analysis
Scientific data shows:
- Fish population estimated at 10,000 individuals
- For sustainable fishing, harvest should not exceed 20% annually
- Calculate maximum sustainable harvest: 10,000 × 0.20 = _____ fish
- If harvest exceeds this, probability of population decline = 80%
Integration Decision
Combine both assessments: What harvest level protects the fish population for future generations while meeting current community needs?
Activity 3: Traditional Games & Probability
Kī-o-rahi Ball Game
In this traditional Māori game, players try to hit 7 different pou (posts).
- Calculate: P(hitting any specific pou) = ___ ÷ ___ = ___
- If a player is more skilled at hitting pou 1-3, how does this change the probability?
- What strategy would give the best chance of success?
Group Decision Making
In traditional hui (meetings), decisions are made by consensus.
- If 12 people need to agree, and 9 currently support a proposal, what's the probability all 12 will agree?
- How might kōrero (discussion) change these probabilities?
- Why might consensus be better than simple majority voting?
Ā Muri, Ā Mua - Contemporary Applications
Climate Science
Traditional environmental indicators now help scientists improve climate change predictions and assess probability of extreme weather events.
Risk Assessment
Insurance companies use both statistical data and traditional knowledge to assess environmental risks for communities and businesses.
Public Health
Health authorities combine statistical models with traditional community knowledge to predict and prevent disease outbreaks.
Technology Design
App developers use both user data and cultural understanding to predict what features people will find useful.
Whakaaro - Knowledge Integration Reflection
Understanding probability through both mathematical formulas and traditional pattern recognition gives us more powerful tools for making decisions and predicting outcomes. Mathematics provides precision, while mātauranga Māori provides context and meaning. Together, they help us navigate uncertainty with both accuracy and wisdom.
"He mata whaiaro" - An inquiring mind sees patterns in all things, whether through numbers or through nature.