The Powder Keg · a causation lab

He pātai: Why did the assassination of one imperial heir become the First World War?

MAIN is a memory tool, not a verdict. Historians disagree about how much weight to give structures, crises and decisions. Your job is to build and revise a causal argument.

1 · Build working definitions

M · Militarism

What changes when states build large armed forces, detailed war plans and arms races?

A · Alliances

How can commitments and expectations widen a crisis without making every decision automatic?

I · Imperialism

How can competition for territory, trade, colonies and global power increase tension?

N · Nationalism

How can belonging, rivalry and movements for national self-determination pull in different directions?

2 · Language ladder: make your causation more precise

Replace vague “caused” with one of these when it fits:

created pressure · increased mistrust · made escalation more likely · narrowed options · encouraged risk-taking · supplied a trigger · accelerated mobilisation · connected one crisis to another

Choose two: __________________________________ / __________________________________

Use each in a historically defensible sentence.

3 · Fact-check the teacher

The original classroom slide claimed Britain and Germany “agreed to completely disarm their navies to keep the peace”. Repair the claim using the idea of the naval arms race.

4 · Conditions → trigger → choices → escalation

Fill at least one item in each box:

Conditions already present	Trigger / July Crisis	Decisions people made	Escalation / consequence

Micro-question: Which column contains the most human agency? Why?

5 · 100 responsibility points · Round 1

Factor	Your points	One reason
Militarism
Alliances
Imperialism
Nationalism
Assassination / July Crisis
Government / leader decisions

Total: ______ / 100

6 · Counterfactual test

Choose your highest-scoring factor. Imagine it was weaker or absent. Would war still have happened in 1914? This does not prove causation — it tests how necessary your factor seems.

7 · 100 points · Round 2

After the evidence and kōrero, reallocate. You are allowed to keep the same judgement, but you must explain why.

Factor	Old points	New points	Why did it change / stay?
Militarism
Alliances
Imperialism
Nationalism
Trigger / July Crisis
Government decisions

Final repair: if your explanation says “X caused WW1” with no mechanism, it is not finished. Explain how X changed choices or conditions.

Exit · evidence moved me

I used to think… Now I think… because… One cause I may still be underestimating is…