Weather Prediction and Probability
Te Matapae Huarere · Reading Forecasts with Confidence
Ngā Whāinga Akoranga · Learning Intentions
- Understand probability as a measure of likelihood (0–1 or 0–100%)
- Interpret weather forecast percentages correctly
- Compare modern meteorological methods with traditional Māori weather knowledge (tohu huarere)
- Collect and analyse data to evaluate the accuracy of weather predictions
Paearu Angitu · Success Criteria
- I can correctly explain what "70% chance of rain" actually means
- I can place events on a probability scale from impossible (0%) to certain (100%)
- I can identify at least three tohu (traditional signs) Māori used to predict weather
- I can evaluate forecast accuracy using a week of observation data
Hononga Marautanga · Curriculum Alignment
Level 4: investigate situations that involve elements of chance; use simple fractions and percentages to describe probability; compare experimental and theoretical probability.
Understand how weather systems operate; investigate how scientific data is used to make predictions; evaluate the reliability of forecasts.
Whakataukī
"Ka kōrero te huarere, ko te tangata e whakarongo"
The weather speaks, and people listen.
Weather prediction matters. Farmers, fishers, pilots, and event organisers all make decisions based on forecasts. But forecasts are not certainties — they express probability. Understanding probability helps us make better decisions in the face of uncertainty.
Tūāhua Tūponotanga · Probability Scale
| Probability | Common meaning | NZ weather example |
|---|---|---|
| 0% | Impossible | It will snow on the Auckland waterfront in January |
| 25% | Unlikely — possible but don't plan on it | Scattered showers possible |
| 50% | Even chance — flip of a coin | Could go either way |
| 75% | Likely — expect it, prepare for it | Rain expected at some point |
| 100% | Certain — it will happen | Very rare in weather forecasting! |
1. When a forecast says "70% chance of rain" — what does that actually mean? (Hint: think about 100 similar days.)
2. The forecast says 40% chance of rain. Would you take an umbrella to school? Explain your reasoning — include the consequences of getting it wrong both ways.
Pānui Matapae Huarere · Reading a Forecast
This is a 5-day forecast for your region. Use it to answer the questions below.
1. Which two days have the highest probability of rain? Convert those percentages to fractions in simplest form.
2. You have an outdoor event planned for Tuesday. Based on the probability, should you have a backup plan? Justify your answer.
3. If you repeat the experiment of this week 10 times, on how many Wednesdays out of 10 would you expect rain? Explain.
Pēhea te Hanga Matapae · How Forecasts Are Made
Modern meteorologists combine multiple data sources to produce probability forecasts. Match each tool to its function in the space provided.
| Tool | What it measures / does |
|---|---|
| Satellites | |
| Weather balloons | |
| Weather stations | |
| Supercomputers |
Why can't weather forecasts be 100% accurate? Give two reasons.
Tohu Huarere · Traditional Weather Signs
Māori developed sophisticated observation-based systems for predicting weather over hundreds of generations. These tohu (signs) were embedded in Maramataka and encoded in community knowledge.
Indicates spring has arrived — planting time begins
Summer is here — coastal and fishing activities peak
Good weather tomorrow — pressure system moving through
Dry conditions coming — from the Pacific
Deep-sea fish near surface = weather change approaching
Seasonal shift — timing of planting and harvest decisions
1. Choose two tohu from above and explain how they might work scientifically — what natural mechanism might make them reliable predictors?
2. In what ways is Maramataka observation similar to modern meteorology? In what ways is it different?
Pukapuka Huarere · Weather Diary (1 Week)
Record forecast vs actual weather for 5 days. At the end, evaluate how accurate the forecasts were.
| Day | Forecast (% chance of rain) | Actual weather | Did it rain? (Y/N) | Was the forecast helpful? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | ||||
| Tuesday | ||||
| Wednesday | ||||
| Thursday | ||||
| Friday |
After completing the diary: Were there any forecasts that were clearly wrong? What does this tell you about weather prediction?
Aronga Mātauranga Māori
Meteorology and Maramataka are not competing systems — they are complementary approaches to the same challenge: understanding and predicting the natural world. NIWA (National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research) increasingly works alongside Māori knowledge holders to integrate tohu-based observation with instrumental data. Some iwi-based environmental monitoring programmes now record Maramataka observations alongside temperature, rainfall, and wind data, building datasets that span traditional and scientific time frames.
In te ao Māori, whakaaro (careful thinking) and tūhura (observation) are central values. Both science and Maramataka share these foundations — the difference is in the tools, not the attitude.
Ngā Rauemi Tautoko · Support Materials
Resources already provided:
- This handout with probability tables and weather diary grid
- MetService (metservice.com) or NIWA CliFlo — for today's regional forecast
- Calculator (permitted throughout)
- Unit vocabulary list: probability, forecast, tohu, Maramataka, uncertainty
Aronga Rerekē · Differentiated Pathways
Tīmata · Entry Level
Read the probability scale and answer questions 1 and 2. Complete the 5-day forecast questions. Start the weather diary.
Paerewa · On Level
Complete all sections. Complete the full weather diary over one week. Answer all questions including the traditional knowledge comparison.
Tūāpae · Extension
Complete all sections. After your week of observation, calculate what percentage of forecasts were accurate (rain predicted and rain occurred). Compare this to NIWA's stated forecast accuracy rates. Write a paragraph evaluating weather forecasting as a probability-based tool.
📋 Teacher Planning Snapshot
Ngā Whāinga Ako — Learning Intentions
Students will engage with this resource to build core literacy skills — reading comprehension, writing craft, and oral language — grounded in the rich storytelling traditions of Aotearoa New Zealand and the literacy practices that empower rangatahi voice.
Ngā Paearu Angitū — Success Criteria
- ✅ Students can apply the literacy skill or strategy featured in this resource with growing independence.
- ✅ Students can connect this resource's literacy focus to authentic texts, contexts, or purposes from their own world.
Differentiation & Inclusion
Scaffold support: Provide sentence starters, word banks, or graphic organisers for entry-level access. Model think-alouds before independent tasks. Offer extension challenges that deepen analysis — for example, comparing the author's craft choices across two texts or writing an additional stanza or paragraph.
ELL / ESOL: Pre-teach key vocabulary before reading. Allow students to annotate in their home language first, then translate key ideas. Use shared reading and think-pair-share structures to lower the stakes for language production. Bilingual glossaries and visual text supports help bridge comprehension.
Inclusion: Chunk reading and writing tasks into manageable steps. Offer multimodal options — oral, visual, or digital — for students to demonstrate understanding. Neurodiverse learners benefit from clear task structures and explicit success criteria. Affirm diverse linguistic and cultural backgrounds as assets, not deficits.
Mātauranga Māori lens: Literacy in Te Ao Māori encompasses tātai kōrero (the arrangement of speech), waiata, whakataukī, and the deep art of kōrero — storytelling as knowledge transmission. Encourage students to see their own family stories and community knowledge as valid literacy texts. Karakia opens and closes learning with intention. Tātai kōrero honours the voice.
Prior knowledge: Adaptable across year levels. No specialist prior knowledge required for entry-level engagement. Teachers may wish to pre-read the resource and anticipate vocabulary that needs pre-teaching.
Curriculum alignment
- Reading — Making Meaning: Students will select and use sources of information, processes, and strategies to identify, form, and express ideas across a range of texts.
- Writing — Creating Meaning: Students will select and use sources of information, processes, and strategies to write in a range of text types for a variety of purposes and audiences.